Date
GMT+00:00
Event Value
Jan, 24 12:45
★★★
ECB Interest Rate Announcement
ECB Interest Rate Announcement
Country:
Date: Jan, 24 12:45
Importance: High
Previous: 0.00%
Forecast: 0.00%
Actual: -
Period: Jan

The European Central Bank's decision to increase, decrease, or maintain interest rates. Controlling interest rates is the key mechanism of monetary policy, and the ECB influences interest rates by first changing the "overnight rate" through the purchase or sale of government bonds. Lowering rates can spur economic growth but may incite inflationary pressures. On the other hand, increasing rates slow inflation but can stymie growth.

The European Central Bank makes a concerted effort to be transparent in its policy. Frequent speeches by Bank Governors make policy goals clear and the Bank adheres to a stated inflation target of 2% changing rates accordingly to meet that goal. Because of this, rate decisions are generally well anticipated, but very important nonetheless.

The ECB's rate decision has an enormous influence on financial markets. Because the ECB interest rate is essentially the return investors receive while holding Euros, changes in rates affect the exchange rate of the Euro.

Because rate changes are usually well anticipated, the actual decision does not tend to impact the market. But if the ECB changes rates they will hold a press conference where some rationale for the decision is offered. Market participants pay close attention to the press conference, hoping to clue in on the likelihood of further rate changes. Often, the language used in the press conference holds important signals to how ECB feels about inflation and the economy. The ECB President's language will be "hawkish" if he is pessimistic about the inflation outlook for the economy. In that case, the market sees a higher chance of future rate hike. Conversely, if the ECB President believes inflation is in check, his remarks will be "dovish," and the market perceives a future rate increase to be unlikely.

0.00%
Jan, 24 13:30
★★★
ECB Press Conference
ECB Press Conference
Country:
Date: Jan, 24 13:30
Importance: High
Previous: -
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: -

The European Central Bank press conference following interest rate announcement.

Jan, 25 13:30
★★★
Durable Goods Orders
Durable Goods Orders
Country:
Date: Jan, 25 13:30
Importance: High
Previous: 0.8% m/m; -0.3% m/m
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: Dec

The value of orders placed for relatively long-lasting goods. Durable Goods are expected to last more than three years. Such products often require large investments and usually reflect optimism on the part of the buyer that their expenditure will be worthwhile.

Because orders for goods have large sway over the actual production, this figure serves as an excellent forecast of US output to come. Durable Goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become sceptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly.

0.8% m/m; -0.3% m/m
Jan, 27 13:30
★★★
Retail Sales
Retail Sales
Country:
Date: Jan, 27 13:30
Importance: High
Previous: 0.2% m/m; 0.2% m/m
Forecast: 0.1% m/m; 0.0% m/m
Actual: -
Period: Dec

An aggregated measure of the sales of retail goods over a stated time period, typically based on a data sampling that is extrapolated to model an entire country. In the U.S., the retail sales report is a monthly economic indicator compiled and released by the Census Bureau and the Department of Commerce. The report covers the previous month, and is released about two weeks after the month-end. Comparisons are made against historical data; year-over-year comparisons are the most-reported metric because they account for the seasonality of consumer-based retail.

0.2% m/m; 0.2% m/m
Jan, 29 15:00
★★★
Consumer Confidence
Consumer Confidence
Country:
Date: Jan, 29 15:00
Importance: High
Previous: 128.1
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: Jan

Assessment of consumer sentiment regarding business conditions, employment and personal income. Based on a representative sample of thousands of mail-in surveys, the Conference Board index has the largest pooling sample of any US measure of consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence levels are generally linked with consumer spending. For instance, when consumer confidence is on the rise consumer spending tends to increase. Low or falling consumer confidence on the other hand is typically associated with decreased spending and consumer demand.

Some analysts criticize the Consumer Confidence figure for its volatile tendencies and weak connection to household expenditure, turning instead to the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence numbers. The volatility of the Consumer Confidence figure is attributed to two factors: its pooling size and the survey time frame focus. The Conference Board surveys an entirely new group of people each month, resulting in more erratic month to month figures. Additionally, the survey queries respondents on expectations for the following six months, a relatively short term evaluation. Conversely, the University of Michigan survey will re-poll many individuals and focuses on expectations for the next one to five years. The long term focus has a stabilizing effect on consumer confidence.

Survey results are printed in the headlines where 100 reflects a recent base year.

128.1
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